Ford All EV in EU By 2035

[oldgeek]

I wouldn't be surprised if in another eight years the range doubled again.

I wouldn't be surprised either, but that would require a change in tech, which is constantly being improved.

If those rigs were taken off the road tomorrow, freight would still move.

Yes, freight would still move. But at a rate that would hurt. Bad. Under current tech, it has been demonstrated already that the range of hauling something with an EV is less than half of an IC vehicle. That should get better. Will EV freight ever get to the rate of IC? Maybe, but I have my doubts. Especially with freight hauling, there is going to have to be a significant change in charging.

 

[rusty ol ranger]

I wouldn't be surprised either, but that would require a change in tech, which is constantly being improved.


Yes, freight would still move. But at a rate that would hurt. Bad. Under current tech, it has been demonstrated already that the range of hauling something with an EV is less than half of an IC vehicle. That should get better. Will EV freight ever get to the rate of IC? Maybe, but I have my doubts. Especially with freight hauling, there is going to have to be a significant change in charging.

The other issue is current gross weight laws. EV trucks cant haul as much before going over 80k cause they are considerably heavier then an average diesel tractor.

So couple less product moved, with less range, and much longer downtimes...yeah...diesels arnt going anywhere

 

[oldgeek]

The other issue is current gross weight laws. EV trucks cant haul as much before going over 80k cause they are considerably heavier then an average diesel tractor.

So couple less product moved, with less range, and much longer downtimes...yeah...diesels arnt going anywhere

In California they are by 2045. Unless they repeal that. But this is all speculation based on current tech. Saw an article in Popular Mechanics of a company that is ready to test a solid state Lithium battery. It doesn't have the issues that current lithium batteries have. https://www.popularmechanics.com/technology/infrastructure/a38349967/solid-state-lithium-batteries/

Besides, I'm having high hopes for the fusion powered truck.

 

[stmitch]

The other issue is current gross weight laws. EV trucks cant haul as much before going over 80k cause they are considerably heavier then an average diesel tractor.

So couple less product moved, with less range, and much longer downtimes...yeah...diesels arnt going anywhere

Pretty sure that EV semis get an extra 2k lbs of gross to work with now:

The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2019, Truck Size and Weight Provisions - FHWA Office of Operations

Battery trucks are just ok for short range stuff now. But in the bigger picture, hydrogen is what most of the commercial heavy duty sector is investing in for extreme duty cycles. Initially (within 5 years) it will be in the form of ICE's that burn hydrogen. These will share many components with ICE powertrains that we're used to right now, so it will be relatively easy to develop, implement into trucks, and relatively inexpensive to purchase. If that takes off in any significant way, then hydrogen fueling stations will become more common, and eventually hydrogen fuel cells might become more financially viable. These companies are investing tons of money into hydrogen as are many governments around the globe including the US. The people making big decisions know that batteries can't do it all.

I'm of the mindset that in the future batteries will be useful in applications that gasoline currently works for, and hydrogen will probably be the diesel equivalent. Perhaps eventually replacing batteries all together if fuel cells reach a point of reasonable affordability.

 

[oldgeek]

hydrogen will probably be the diesel equivalent. Perhaps eventually replacing batteries all together if fuel cells reach a point of reasonable affordability.

The handling and storage of hydrogen is an issue. This I thought was really interesting. https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a39679657/solid-state-hydrogen-storage-battery-alternative/

 

[rusty ol ranger]

Pretty sure that EV semis get an extra 2k lbs of gross to work with now:

The Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2019, Truck Size and Weight Provisions - FHWA Office of Operations

Battery trucks are just ok for short range stuff now. But in the bigger picture, hydrogen is what most of the commercial heavy duty sector is investing in for extreme duty cycles. Initially (within 5 years) it will be in the form of ICE's that burn hydrogen. These will share many components with ICE powertrains that we're used to right now, so it will be relatively easy to develop, implement into trucks, and relatively inexpensive to purchase. If that takes off in any significant way, then hydrogen fueling stations will become more common, and eventually hydrogen fuel cells might become more financially viable. These companies are investing tons of money into hydrogen as are many governments around the globe including the US. The people making big decisions know that batteries can't do it all.

I'm of the mindset that in the future batteries will be useful in applications that gasoline currently works for, and hydrogen will probably be the diesel equivalent. Perhaps eventually replacing batteries all together if fuel cells reach a point of reasonable affordability.

Im betting on diesel/gas for atleast another 40-50 yrs to be the dominant fuel sources

 

[oldgeek]

Im betting on diesel/gas for atleast another 40-50 yrs to be the dominant fuel sources

How much would you bet and how would you plan on collecting, or paying?

 

[rusty ol ranger]

How much would you bet and how would you plan on collecting, or paying?

Ill be dead. Or close to it. Fossil fuels are to entrenched to be gone or beaten back any time even close to soon.

 

[stmitch]

Im betting on diesel/gas for atleast another 40-50 yrs to be the dominant fuel sources

I think ICE's will definitely be around for 40-50 years, but I'd say diesel specifically will no longer be the most common commercial fuel in the EU and North America within ~20 years.

I think between regulations continuing to tighten and the needs for capital investment to be spent on other options, we're already seeing companies stop producing/investing in diesel because the return on investment is low. Hino, Isuzu, and Daimler/Detroit have already made the decision to exit the medium duty diesel segment. They were having to spend too much money developing their engines to fight for what was a small market share (if they could even get them to meet emissions requirments in the first place). Cummins already has about 80% market share in Medium Duty segment and that's only going to grow as others retreat. And in ~5 years or less they'll have fuel agnostic engine platforms that can use diesel, hydrogen, natural gas, and gasoline variants of the same basic engine platforms. Natural gas is already here, gasoline is right behind, and the target for their hydrogen ICEs is 2027.

How fuel-agnostic engine platforms can reduce carbon emissions of commercial transportation | Cummins Inc.

The transportation sector emits five million metric tons of CO2 a day in the U.S. This is about 36 pounds of carbon every day for each person in the U.S. Passenger cars, motorcycles, heavy-duty trucks, trains, boats, and airplanes all contribute to this carbon emission, but at varying levels...

www.cummins.com

Cummins unveils industry-first fuel-agnostic internal combustion powertrain solutions, helping fleets decarbonize today with low-carbon fuels | Cummins Inc.

Global power leader Cummins Inc. (NYSE: CMI) announced today that it is expanding its industry-leading powertrain platforms, leveraging a range of lower carbon fuel types.

www.cummins.com

 

[pjtoledo]

a point to ponder about what the future may bring:

back in the late 60's on numerous occasions I watched the Dana Corp experimental turbine powered semi travel along
the US 24 bypass in North Toledo. huge exhaust pipe, whistled, had an extended cab full of instruments and a technician or 2.
it always pulled a trailer loaded with test weights.

seen any turbine powered vehicles lately?

 

[oldgeek]

seen any turbine powered vehicles lately?

The Batmobile?

 

[alwaysFlOoReD]

The Batmobile?

I wish I was living in youruniverse...lol

 

[rusty ol ranger]

a point to ponder about what the future may bring:

back in the late 60's on numerous occasions I watched the Dana Corp experimental turbine powered semi travel along
the US 24 bypass in North Toledo. huge exhaust pipe, whistled, had an extended cab full of instruments and a technician or 2.
it always pulled a trailer loaded with test weights.

seen any turbine powered vehicles lately?

Ford and Chevy had them too...

 

[Roert42]

Chrysler turbine Car

 

[pjtoledo]

View attachment 84476

Chrysler turbine Car

kind of reminds me of a backwards Thunderbird '61/2/3 ???