dear Rusty......

[rusty ol ranger]

anyways.....back to rusty.

Video 1- Doesnt surprise me. Personally in the winter espicially on the roads i have enough to worry about without the added (unneeded) headaches of dealing with that utter nonsense. 150 miles is (considerably) less then even my 27 year old 460 will go when i was tugging my windsail camper with the cruise on at 65 and the AC cranked. Secondly...if you were charging off a normal outlet in the cold....would you even gain range? It was -5 the other morning and i had just drove 60 miles before i parked 6 hours and had to leave for work, which is 30 mi round trip and no where to charge at the farm...would i of made it back home? This is just ridiculious people will pay that kind of money for such a pain in the sack.

Video 2- I was shocked by this one. I think he guessestimated his MPG to low for that rivian if it was gas...i would of aimed up around 20mpg...even fullsize trucks nowadays have no issue hitting 15hwy. Once again...WHY?

Video 3- Hopefully biden is gone by this time next year and his replacement rolls back the standards....otherwise the big 3 are going to be after massive bailouts again....and car prices will jump even higher to offset the costs of fines for producing the stuff people actually buy. This is what happens when you tap an tottally untapped market...you have the diehards that never had a real EV option before that run out and buy them like mad....but you have no idea how deep that well is...which is why the quick forced timeline was doomed to fail. It reminds me of diesels in the early 80's. Everything had a diesel option, most were rushed, and despite the advantages people soured on them quickly because of GM doing things quickly like converting a 350 into a diesel.

The whole thing is nothing but a clusterf*** and personally, i dont feel bad for anyone involved.

 

[85_Ranger4x4]

Video 2- I was shocked by this one. I think he guessestimated his MPG to low for that rivian if it was gas...i would of aimed up around 20mpg...even fullsize trucks nowadays have no issue hitting 15hwy. Once again...WHY?

Mine gets 17hwy on $1.95/gal E85...

 

[rusty ol ranger]

Mine gets 17hwy on $1.95/gal E85...

Thats what im saying.

My jeep is "midsized" and i get like 24 or 25hwy. I was getting 27 before i put the BFG's on

 

[stmitch]

Just to clarify, Ford isn't done with the Lightning or any EVs as the videos kind of imply. THey had planned to scale up production to 3200 trucks per week from the Rouge plant as of last fall, and they're no longer going to do that. Production will remain around 1600 Lightnings per week from that plant.

EV sales are slowing, but I think it's much more about affordability than anti-EV sentiment or some political agenda. Most EV makers (or their dealers) raised prices due to limited supply, and many people were still buying them. But they weren't able to react fast enough to the historic rising of interest rates, and that nuked affordability for most people. Lets use the Lightning as an example:

Meanwhile auto loan rates increased significantly:

Historical auto loan rates in U.S. 2025| Statista

A chart depicting the monthly car loan rate in the United States reveals a substantial increase over time since early 2021.

www.statista.com

So, when Ford released the Lightning in April 2022, the short range, entry model was priced at $40k and the average loan rate was 4.5%. That means a payment was around $750/mo with 0 down and a 60 mo term.
11 months later in March of 2023, Ford had raised the price of that exact same truck to $60k, and interest rates had jumped to 6.5%. So the monthly payment went to $1175/mo.
By the July of 2023, Ford knew they had a problem and had to drop prices so they cut to $50k for the entry truck. But interest rates were 7.1% by then, which offset a decent amount of the price drop. Consumers ended up paying $990/month for the same truck that was almost $250/mo cheaper just 15 months prior.

Nobody is spending $1k/mo on a base model truck with a range of 230 miles. In decent weather. With no load.

Some businesses or fleets could probably make a decent case for an EV truck, but when prices randomly climb or drop by several thousand dollars, you can't accurately predict depreciation. Some Lightning buyers saw instant $10k depreciation hits they weren't expecting when Ford cut prices. That slaughters total cost of ownership calculations. These buyers need pricing stability not only for the initial purchase, but also to accurately predict depreciation.

The general issue with most EVs (or any rate sensitive purchase) right now is that they're not affordable. It might've made business sense to start cranking out luxo EVs when interest rates were low, but the rate spike has made them much harder for buyers to afford. Automakers have cut prices in response, but that just reduces their profits and makes them less appealing to produce. OEMs will have to have massive production scale, and make smaller, decontented EVs if they're going to have a successful business case. I'm not sure that the battery tech has gotten cheap enough for that to be the case. It's going to take time.

 

[85_Ranger4x4]

Ford also had a ridiculously expensive EV update mandate for their dealers too and about half their dealers told them to go pound sand... which does nothing to help their sales targets.

 

[rusty ol ranger]

Just to clarify, Ford isn't done with the Lightning or any EVs as the videos kind of imply. THey had planned to scale up production to 3200 trucks per week from the Rouge plant as of last fall, and they're no longer going to do that. Production will remain around 1600 Lightnings per week from that plant.

EV sales are slowing, but I think it's much more about affordability than anti-EV sentiment or some political agenda. Most EV makers (or their dealers) raised prices due to limited supply, and many people were still buying them. But they weren't able to react fast enough to the historic rising of interest rates, and that nuked affordability for most people. Lets use the Lightning as an example:

Meanwhile auto loan rates increased significantly:

Historical auto loan rates in U.S. 2025| Statista

A chart depicting the monthly car loan rate in the United States reveals a substantial increase over time since early 2021.

www.statista.com

So, when Ford released the Lightning in April 2022, the short range, entry model was priced at $40k and the average loan rate was 4.5%. That means a payment was around $750/mo with 0 down and a 60 mo term.
11 months later in March of 2023, Ford had raised the price of that exact same truck to $60k, and interest rates had jumped to 6.5%. So the monthly payment went to $1175/mo.
By the July of 2023, Ford knew they had a problem and had to drop prices so they cut to $50k for the entry truck. But interest rates were 7.1% by then, which offset a decent amount of the price drop. Consumers ended up paying $990/month for the same truck that was almost $250/mo cheaper just 15 months prior.

Nobody is spending $1k/mo on a base model truck with a range of 230 miles. In decent weather. With no load.

Some businesses or fleets could probably make a decent case for an EV truck, but when prices randomly climb or drop by several thousand dollars, you can't accurately predict depreciation. Some Lightning buyers saw instant $10k depreciation hits they weren't expecting when Ford cut prices. That slaughters total cost of ownership calculations. These buyers need pricing stability not only for the initial purchase, but also to accurately predict depreciation.

The general issue with most EVs (or any rate sensitive purchase) right now is that they're not affordable. It might've made business sense to start cranking out luxo EVs when interest rates were low, but the rate spike has made them much harder for buyers to afford. Automakers have cut prices in response, but that just reduces their profits and makes them less appealing to produce. OEMs will have to have massive production scale, and make smaller, decontented EVs if they're going to have a successful business case. I'm not sure that the battery tech has gotten cheap enough for that to be the case. It's going to take time.

Wonder how many platniums and other 80-100k pickups they sell?

Bet its more then the lightning.

I dont personally think price is the main factor here.

 

[Fast Eddie]

If I drilled sideways about half a mile I could tap into the natural gas line by the highway...

Whatya waitin' fer

 

[rusty ol ranger]

Whatya waitin' fer

missdig...duh

 

[Fast Eddie]

Wonder how many platniums and other 80-100k pickups they sell?

Bet its more then the lightning.

I dont personally think price is the main factor here.

I was going to mention that. I think the demographic buying into the EV market lives in urban or suburban areas, most often doesn't drive very far, and is less affected by price than the average Joe. It probably isn't their only mode of transportation either. Sure, it discourages 'Joe' from buying an EV but that's not the usual customer.

I think stmitch makes a lot of good points and could have included some info about the demographics and their purchasing powers to round out an otherwise well researched comment. Another segment with equally profound reality is where the cars would operate and when. There's mention of 'fleet' opportunities. That gets sketchy in areas that experience colder climate for extended periods of time. How often are EVs really going to be a reliable operation tool?

As most videos of this nature mention, it's too much too soon. Forcing the issue is causing more problems than cures and just pissing people off but the government is blind to the people it supposedly serves, and I'll end that here.

 

[stmitch]

Wonder how many platniums and other 80-100k pickups they sell?

Bet its more then the lightning.

I dont personally think price is the main factor here.

Sure. They also make far more of them than the Lightning. If the Lightning sells each of the 1600/wk that they plan to build this year, that's around 80k trucks per year. They sell like 500k F150s per year.

The EV is still a niche product, but the reason they're suddenly not selling as well as they were in the recent past is driven by affordability. Jim Farley said something similar recently when they announced the slowing of Lightning production.

To know how well a vehicle is selling, you can look at 'days of supply', which accounts for how many might sell in a given time period, and how long it might take to sell through all of the current supply available. So for a vehicle with a high 'days of supply', there's more supply than demand and they're starting to collect dust on dealer lots. something around 50-60 days of supply is usually considered a "balanced" market for a vehicle.
Things are starting to slow down for everybody:

New-Vehicle Inventory Surpasses 2.5 Million Units, 71 Days' Supply - Cox Automotive Inc.

December opened with new-vehicle inventory at the highest level since early spring of 2021, according to Cox Automotive’s data analysis.

www.coxautoinc.com

It's not the freshest data, but it's the best I can do on short notice. As of Labor Day last year, the Lightning had 97 days supply while the F150 in general was sitting at 117 days:

Ford Inventory Woes: Does Soaring Inventory Mean Ford’s Prices Are Just Too High?

The latest Ford inventory data reveals which models are most negotiable in 2023. Use this market update to your advantage when negotiating Ford prices.

caredge.com

Vehicle inventory is pretty regional in nature, but if you're in the market for a Silverado, Southern California currently has massive supply and dealers that are more likely to wheel and deal:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750916915260686624

 

[ZMan]

you willingly have an electric hot water heater?

For 10 years now.

The propane heater I replaced would go through a whole tank itself between April and October. That's $1000. My current electric tank does not use that much in electricity.

If my county actually gave a shit about their residents I would tap into natural gas. But they don't and i don't have that option. No county water either.

 

[rusty ol ranger]

Sure. They also make far more of them than the Lightning. If the Lightning sells each of the 1600/wk that they plan to build this year, that's around 80k trucks per year. They sell like 500k F150s per year.

The EV is still a niche product, but the reason they're suddenly not selling as well as they were in the recent past is driven by affordability. Jim Farley said something similar recently when they announced the slowing of Lightning production.

To know how well a vehicle is selling, you can look at 'days of supply', which accounts for how many might sell in a given time period, and how long it might take to sell through all of the current supply available. So for a vehicle with a high 'days of supply', there's more supply than demand and they're starting to collect dust on dealer lots. something around 50-60 days of supply is usually considered a "balanced" market for a vehicle.
Things are starting to slow down for everybody:

New-Vehicle Inventory Surpasses 2.5 Million Units, 71 Days' Supply - Cox Automotive Inc.

December opened with new-vehicle inventory at the highest level since early spring of 2021, according to Cox Automotive’s data analysis.

www.coxautoinc.com

It's not the freshest data, but it's the best I can do on short notice. As of Labor Day last year, the Lightning had 97 days supply while the F150 in general was sitting at 117 days:

Ford Inventory Woes: Does Soaring Inventory Mean Ford’s Prices Are Just Too High?

The latest Ford inventory data reveals which models are most negotiable in 2023. Use this market update to your advantage when negotiating Ford prices.

caredge.com

Vehicle inventory is pretty regional in nature, but if you're in the market for a Silverado, Southern California currently has massive supply and dealers that are more likely to wheel and deal:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1750916915260686624

Time will tell

 

[bobbywalter]

Just to clarify, Ford isn't done with the Lightning or any EVs as the videos kind of imply. THey had planned to scale up production to 3200 trucks per week from the Rouge plant as of last fall, and they're no longer going to do that. Production will remain around 1600 Lightnings per week from that plant.

EV sales are slowing, but I think it's much more about affordability than anti-EV sentiment or some political agenda. Most EV makers (or their dealers) raised prices due to limited supply, and many people were still buying them. But they weren't able to react fast enough to the historic rising of interest rates, and that nuked affordability for most people. Lets use the Lightning as an example:

Meanwhile auto loan rates increased significantly:

Historical auto loan rates in U.S. 2025| Statista

A chart depicting the monthly car loan rate in the United States reveals a substantial increase over time since early 2021.

www.statista.com

So, when Ford released the Lightning in April 2022, the short range, entry model was priced at $40k and the average loan rate was 4.5%. That means a payment was around $750/mo with 0 down and a 60 mo term.
11 months later in March of 2023, Ford had raised the price of that exact same truck to $60k, and interest rates had jumped to 6.5%. So the monthly payment went to $1175/mo.
By the July of 2023, Ford knew they had a problem and had to drop prices so they cut to $50k for the entry truck. But interest rates were 7.1% by then, which offset a decent amount of the price drop. Consumers ended up paying $990/month for the same truck that was almost $250/mo cheaper just 15 months prior.

Nobody is spending $1k/mo on a base model truck with a range of 230 miles. In decent weather. With no load.

Some businesses or fleets could probably make a decent case for an EV truck, but when prices randomly climb or drop by several thousand dollars, you can't accurately predict depreciation. Some Lightning buyers saw instant $10k depreciation hits they weren't expecting when Ford cut prices. That slaughters total cost of ownership calculations. These buyers need pricing stability not only for the initial purchase, but also to accurately predict depreciation.

The general issue with most EVs (or any rate sensitive purchase) right now is that they're not affordable. It might've made business sense to start cranking out luxo EVs when interest rates were low, but the rate spike has made them much harder for buyers to afford. Automakers have cut prices in response, but that just reduces their profits and makes them less appealing to produce. OEMs will have to have massive production scale, and make smaller, decontented EVs if they're going to have a successful business case. I'm not sure that the battery tech has gotten cheap enough for that to be the case. It's going to take time.

My truck was 75000 in 2021. To replace it equally in 2024 is 90000.

So it won't be replaced equally.



Lightning production is gutted as of the 10th. I have 3 family members in there and they will be going back to rouge or the ranger plant.


The 1600 per week is a potential..... Its not something that is normal.

Sure as fawk won't happen with one shift.

That talk of dropping from 3200 to 1600 was hedging.

At the end of the day they sold less the 30k trucks last year and lost 36000 per truck the last 4 months .

LOST.....36 thousand per unit. You think they are building 1600 per week?

 

[bobbywalter]

https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/ford-reduce-f-150-lightning-production-2024-01-19/#:~:text=Jan%2019%20(Reuters)%20%2D%20Ford,has%20been%20lower%20than%20expected

.

 

[bobbywalter]

Cummins to debut hydrogen engine in Paris | Industrial Vehicle Technology International

Cummins has announced it will display its next generation B6.7H hydrogen engine to the construction industry for the first time at this April's Intermat

www.ivtinternational.com