Coronavirus

[Dirtman]

25%?! I hope that's an exageration. I know that hearing about a 1000pt daily drop sounds like a lot, but when the markets are near all time highs, it's not a significant percentage. If you've lost 25% in the last couple of days, something is wrong with your portfolio. And as long as you've been invested for the last few years, you should still be significantly 'in the black'.
The DJIA is down just 7% in the last 5 days. Including this week's drop, it's still up over 4% for the last 12 months, and up 59.9% for the last 5 years total.
The S&P500 is down is down a similar 7% in the last 5 days, but is up over 11% for the last 12 months, and up over 58% for the last 5 years.



As for the overall economic impact, I work for a large, global company in the industrial/manufacturing sector. We have operations all over China, including Wuhan. China is the second largest economy on the globe and it's more or less shut down for a month now. Q4 2019 was the worst single quarter since 2009, and they weren't forcasting much if any improvement for 2020 thanks to a declining/slowing global economy. That's a consistent outlook for pretty much any large scale machinery/transportation company from what I've seen, and that was before the virus started to shut things down. That means Q1 is likely to be worse for industrials than expected, and that damage is likely to spread into other sectors of the market too. I think it's going to drop more over the next couple of months, particularly when Q1 results are out, so I'd turn off the news and avoid looking at your stocks if you get nervous about these things. Whatever you do, don't panic and sell.

 

[Grumpaw]

25%?! I hope that's an exageration. I know that hearing about a 1000pt daily drop sounds like a lot, but when the markets are near all time highs, it's not a significant percentage. If you've lost 25% in the last couple of days, something is wrong with your portfolio. And as long as you've been invested for the last few years, you should still be significantly 'in the black'.
The DJIA is down just 7% in the last 5 days. Including this week's drop, it's still up over 4% for the last 12 months, and up 59.9% for the last 5 years total.
The S&P500 is down is down a similar 7% in the last 5 days, but is up over 11% for the last 12 months, and up over 58% for the last 5 years.



As for the overall economic impact, I work for a large, global company in the industrial/manufacturing sector. We have operations all over China, including Wuhan. China is the second largest economy on the globe and it's more or less shut down for a month now. Q4 2019 was the worst single quarter since 2009, and they weren't forcasting much if any improvement for 2020 thanks to a declining/slowing global economy. That's a consistent outlook for pretty much any large scale machinery/transportation company from what I've seen, and that was before the virus started to shut things down. That means Q1 is likely to be worse for industrials than expected, and that damage is likely to spread into other sectors of the market too. I think it's going to drop more over the next couple of months, particularly when Q1 results are out, so I'd turn off the news and avoid looking at your stocks if you get nervous about these things. Whatever you do, don't panic and sell.

Yes, an exaggeration...but your loosing $$$ non-the-less.
A 1900 point drop in 2 days is a big deal. It wiped away any $$$ that was made in the last 2-3 months. My wife's 401K account dumped all that was made since the beginning of the year. So, even when the market rises, it will now have to make up for what was lost, before any new gain is shown.
As far as an overall impact from the virus, we haven't felt it here yet, and in the manuf area might not see it. But think about this...
If it does spread here, the industries that support cruise lines, airlines, railroad passenger travel will all suffer simply because people will not want to travel in large crowded areas. Then you have the hotels and restaurants that support travelers. The food and custodial companies that take care of and maintain ships, planes, hotels.
Again, it's a snowball effect. The travel agencies that set trips up, car rentals, trip planners. These businesses may not go out of business but may be hurting . It's not just the companies in china making auto parts, but it will dribble down to the average citizen.
If/when it hits here people will stop going to movies, shows, concerts, anywhere there are large crowds. Even going to Wally World may be a challenge.
Not trying to be "Mr Doom", but it is just the nature of people to get scared over something like this. Just today San Francisco declared a "state of emergency". Have no idea why, but they did. Can you imagine what that is going to do to their tourist industry ?
Grumpaw

 

[stmitch]

Yes, an exaggeration...but your loosing $$$ non-the-less.
A 1900 point drop in 2 days is a big deal. It wiped away any $$$ that was made in the last 2-3 months. My wife's 401K account dumped all that was made since the beginning of the year. So, even when the market rises, it will now have to make up for what was lost, before any new gain is shown.

None of it is real until you buy/sell. Historically, the US stock market has averaged 7-8% returns. Being flat so far this year is fine with me because they gained 28% last year alone. It's basically up 200% in the last 10 years. The gains have been incredible! You could withstand a lot of flat or even negative markets and still come out way ahead after a decade like that. Your timeline should be measured in decades, not weeks or months. Don't miss the forest for the trees here. I'm using it as an opportunity to buy more.

As far as an overall impact from the virus, we haven't felt it here yet, and in the manuf area might not see it. But think about this...
If it does spread here, the industries that support cruise lines, airlines, railroad passenger travel will all suffer simply because people will not want to travel in large crowded areas. Then you have the hotels and restaurants that support travelers. The food and custodial companies that take care of and maintain ships, planes, hotels.
Again, it's a snowball effect. The travel agencies that set trips up, car rentals, trip planners. These businesses may not go out of business but may be hurting . It's not just the companies in china making auto parts, but it will dribble down to the average citizen.
If/when it hits here people will stop going to movies, shows, concerts, anywhere there are large crowds. Even going to Wally World may be a challenge.
Not trying to be "Mr Doom", but it is just the nature of people to get scared over something like this. Just today San Francisco declared a "state of emergency". Have no idea why, but they did. Can you imagine what that is going to do to their tourist industry ?
Grumpaw

Yeah, it's reactionary. It's a lot like talk of a recession helping to create an actual recession. It's going to have a wider impact than people probably realize. People are irrational and make decisions based on emotions rather than historical precedent or data.

 

[Dirtman]

It's ok everyone mike pence is in charge now. A man who thinks science is the devil is now handling a viral outbreak.

You people are all f****d.

 

[Grumpaw]

Are you saying that our Fearless Leader, the most intelligent and knowledgeable person we have ever known (his own words), who knows nothing about everything,
would put someone as inept as he is in charge of keeping us all safe ???
His idea may be to have a priest conduct an "exorcism" on each of us to cure the virus.
Can you just envision someone standing over you yelling...
"Away with you, you evil bugs, away with you" "Never return to harm this believer (only if your a Trumpette)"
Putting Pence in charge is the equivalent of putting a 3 year old who plays with rubber ducky's in a bathtub in charge of a nuclear aircraft carrier.

Grumpaw

 

[Grumpaw]

This just in...
Fearless Leader will refuse to wear a "mask" so as to not worry the public.
However, he has requested that he and his family be issued new "suits" to be worn daily.
But, this in no way should cause the public to worry, or worse, panic.
THE NEW EXECUTIVE SUIT...
Also shown is the administrations new idea for a Virus Protection Device to be issued ASAP.

 

[Dirtman]

Relax... "Your probably not gonna die."

 

[RonD]

.......................
Can you just envision someone standing over you yelling...
"Away with you, you evil bugs, away with you" "Never return to harm this believer...."

Hey, this must have worked for almost 200,000 years since the human race is still around, medical science hasn't been around all that long

 

[Dirtman]

But the earth is only 5,000 years old!

 

[RonD]

But the earth is only 5,000 years old!

Earth is older than that................

Oh wait, you means in "old years" which were 920,000 "new years" long, so yes earth is 5,000 old years old or 4.6 billion new years old, give or take a few "years"
Those old year calendars are confusing

 

[Grumpaw]

But the earth is only 5,000 years old!

And, it's flat !!!
Grumpaw

 

[RonD]

And, it's flat !!!
Grumpaw

Yes every picture I have seen shows that its flat, I have one hanging on my wall, its flat, easy to see that
Its those stupid globes that confuse everyone

 

[Dirtman]

H



Hell, if we're gonna talk politics, let's talk fuckin politics!

When the president declared he was going to run, one of the first things the democrats done was ask if he was going to play nice AFTER Clinton won. They pitched such a massive bitch that he refused to make such a call long before their hypothetical ASSumption was even supposedly scheduled to occur.

Then what happened??

HE WON!!

Voted into office by the citizens of this once great country.

And what have THEY done ever since?? NOTHING but throw shit and bitch ever since, it makes me sick to my stomach just seeing their shit-eating faces.

If you don't like this country then go to Russia, go to China, go to Iran, see how you like it there. I can guarantee in about ten minutes you'll be wishing you had it back, but once it's gone, it's going to stay gone. You guys are the best friends they've ever had anyway.

The many thousands upon thousands who've fought and died for it, the Washingtons and Jeffersons, must literally be rolling over in their graves

 

[RonD]

The DUDE

 

[Grumpaw]

Me thinks this has gone a bit far, and I guess I'm partially to blame.
To Josh, I did serve, and I did shed blood, along with many others, for this country, so you can have the freedom to express yourself.
This is the greatest country in the world, and always will be.
I joke about our Fearless Leader, because it's my right to. I did not vote for him, and come November I will do what is my right to do, VOTE to remove him.
But, what I and many others have done is fought so you can VOTE to keep him if you wish. That is your right.
I am going to get off my soapbox now.
Oh, by the way, he did not "win"...the vote was cast by the electoral members, BUT, the popular vote, counted as one person-one vote, he lost by 3 million votes.
I do have to respect the office, but I DO NOT have to respect the person in that office.
Grumpaw