Well there is no "if" it will run the course.... there is only "when."
Cat has been out of the bag way too long. Maybe it could have been sorted out early this year, maybe not. We are FAR too mobile of a society.... never mind that our southern border is, well, porous.
All it takes is ONE person getting off an overseas flight, or wading across the Rio Grande, and all this starts up again, no matter how long society has been locked down here.
Good news and bad news. 1 million confirmed cases in Texas? Sounds like the worst is ahead of us, with something like 25-30 million people in the state (educated guess). But..... Well, we know from testing of closed populations (ie. prisons) and random sampling of the population for antibodies, that most likely at least ten times that many have been exposed, and did not get sick. So.... for this state alone, we're probably a third of the way for the population to have survived it. That's building herd immunity. Not good for those who have died, and their families, of course. But, the effective death rate is maybe a tenth of what the screaming idiots on TV tell us. Maybe less than that.
It's been in the papers, over 40% of the deaths are in nursing homes. Tragic, and we need to figure out how to keep it out of those places better, but for the non-nursing home population, that shows the odds are maybe cut in half, or at least by a third, again.
Shut down our society? Almost can't be done. Because there are too many exceptions. First responders? Sure... understandable... but they have to get to work. So gas stations, mechanics, and car dealerships have to stay open. And, do we all want to eat? Uh... yeah.... so the grocery stores have to stay open, along with their supply chains. Hospitals, prisons, utilities, the courts? Yeah we need those open, and that means they need janitors, housekeeping, pest control, and no telling what else to show up for work. Most people aren't prepared to store 4-6 weeks of food, and even if they were, the just-in-time inventory system won't support it. Produce goes bad too fast, and we're all going to get cranky, eating nothing but ramen noodles for a month.... The high-tech companies are about the only part of the workforce, that can make everyone work from home all the time (and they've been going that route for more than 20 years, anyway). Much of the rest of society, you can't just send them home, and get anything done.
Do masks work? Probably.... some... sometimes. But the CDC says something like 70% of people coming down with the cooties, were diligent about wearing masks in public. So..... it might help a little, but it isn't a panacea.
Good news, at least some doctors are getting a clue, and a little less barbaric, about treatment. Turns out, shoving everyone on a ventilator, isn't always the best option. A few doctors are figuring this out.
Waiting around for a miracle vaccine? Good luck. Flu vaccines, and we've been making them for decades, are not anywhere close to 100% reliable. Probably half, to 2/3s, in a good year. Experimental cooties vaccines? Eh.... good luck with that. Let me know how those work out for you. Turns out, vaccines for viruses.... are a LOT harder to make, than vaccines for bacteria. That's just history for you.
We've got a long way to go, but the apocalypse is much less dire, than the idiots on TV would make it out to be. Keep in mind, they get paid to spread fear and panic. And they're doing a bang-up job.
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