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Anyone electrifying?

oldgeek

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That report (from 2019) also leads off with the following:

"For the same vehicle models with different powertrains, the carbon footprint of the battery-powered E variants is already better than those of the corresponding vehicles with internal combustion engines. In addition, the electric vehicles offer a higher CO2-saving potential in all phases of the product cycle."

And then continues:

"Improvements in lithium-ion battery technology and supply chain optimizations lower the carbon footprint during battery manufacturing for the first ID. model planned for 2020 by more than 25 percent per kilowatt hour (kWh) of battery capacity compared with the e-Golf. When using regenerative energy, the reduction potential is almost 50 percent."

EV's are more carbon intensive to produce, but less carbon intensive to use (higher upfront carbon, but much lower per mile driven). So at some point, the ICE's footprint surpasses the EV's and from then on the EV's advantage only grows with each mile that it's driven. That VW study confirms that to be true, and they were considering older tech/battery chemistries and only using a vehicle life span of 200,000km (~124k miles). Most new vehicles will be used far more than that (at least in the US) which would only widen the EV's advantage over the ICE. And that's only considering GHG production. If smog forming emissions are also included in the ICE's numbers, then the EV payoff comes sooner.
I think the break even point as to CO2 is around 100K miles. I imagine most vehicles are driven far beyond that. As the numbers show 10-20% reduction. That is not nothing or trivial. But EV's are being marketed and most buying them are buying into a "CO2 free" notion. Of course, when is marketing really honest?
 


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For sure not 100k miles break even, because that's not a valid statistic

i.e. there is NO break even with ICE vehicles

So if you assume a person will buy and drive one of these, ICE or EV then...............

You would have to look at building the ICE vehicle, and making its fuel, gas or diesel

Then making the EV and its battery, and making its fuel(electricity)

I think break even would be when you decided to switch to an EV, lol, and then less CO2 emissions from then on
Even if you think it doesn't happen at 0k miles it is certainly NOT at 100k miles
 

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For sure not 100k miles break even, because that's not a valid statistic

i.e. there is NO break even with ICE vehicles

So if you assume a person will buy and drive one of these, ICE or EV then...............

You would have to look at building the ICE vehicle, and making its fuel, gas or diesel

Then making the EV and its battery, and making its fuel(electricity)


I think break even would be when you decided to switch to an EV, lol, and then less CO2 emissions from then on
Even if you think it doesn't happen at 0k miles it is certainly NOT at 100k miles
This is how you determine the break even point. EV might produce double the carbon to build, but produce half the carbon to drive. Initially it has a larger footprint than ICE, but at X miles the two "break even."
 

rusty ol ranger

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Whats the break even point plugged into a coal power plant?

Like 67% of the US is.
 

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None, just keeps on spewing out the CO2, same as ICE
So if you have BOTH.....................well it ain't rocket science, 2 - 1 = 1 source of CO2
 

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I think the break even point as to CO2 is around 100K miles. I imagine most vehicles are driven far beyond that. As the numbers show 10-20% reduction. That is not nothing or trivial. But EV's are being marketed and most buying them are buying into a "CO2 free" notion. Of course, when is marketing really honest?
Anybody who tells you a general "break even" point at XXXX miles is either generalizing to make a point or doesn't know what they're talking about. You can of course estimate it, and people have tried, but there is no standard break even point for EVs in general, or even within the same models. It depends on factors unique to each EV during it's manufacturing and then usage. What is the battery chemistry? Where are those materials sourced from? How large is the battery? How clean is the energy used in production and then charging in customer hands? Does the owner commute efficiently with it, or are they ripping 0-60 pulls or towing all the time?

MIT says that the same 82kwh battery in a Model 3 could have a footprint that ranges from 2.5 tons to 16 tons of carbon depending on the answers to those questions:


There are also efficient EVs and inefficient EVs just like there are efficient and inefficient ICEs. Edmunds has tested a bunch of EVs for range with fairly standard practices. In the real world, a new Lightning with the Extended range battery and a Tesla Model 3 Long Range both get 345 miles per full charge:


But the Model 3 does it with an 82 kwh battery pack, while the Lightning does it with a 131kwh battery pack. The new Hummer EV gets around 310 miles, but uses a massive 200kwh battery. So, not only do the larger, heavier, less aerodynamic EVs have much larger footprints during manufacturing, but they also guzzle more electrons per mile too. So if you're comparing footprints of say an ICE Civic vs an EV Hummer, the Hummer may never break even. But if you're trying to do an apples-to-apples comparison of an ICE F150 and an EV F150, then the EV likely pays off fairly early in it's life, even if it's charged on coal. If we're being honest, a PHEV option (if it existed) would break even sooner than the full EV because you'd get more EV miles driven per kwh of battery capacity, but that's not currently an option.

If you want, you can play around with footprint estimates using the same tool the .gov does here:

 

stmitch

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Whats the break even point plugged into a coal power plant?

Like 67% of the US is.
In 2021, 61% of US electricity came from fossil fuels (22% from coal, 38% from cleaner nat gas):


You can see my above post about specifics for "break even points", but the short answer is that it depends on tons of factors. The DOE does have a tool that you can use to compare annual footprint of EV, PHEV, standard hybrid, and gasoline powertrains in your specific location based on where your electricity likely comes from:


For Michigan specifically, they estimate the EV would be about 27% the annual footprint of comparable ICE. Of course, if you take advantage of some incentives and install some solar panels or buy cleaner electricity, the impact could be reduced further.
 
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Chapap

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Anybody who tells you a general "break even" point at XXXX miles is either generalizing to make a point or doesn't know what they're talking about.
Well anything like this is generalizing unless you compare one car to another. But there will be a general range. 100k miles in general could mean 50-150k for all the sensible comparisons (not civic to lightning).

For example, 40k +-5k miles was the gas price/upgrade price break even point for all the Hyundai sedans and xovers with hybrid options when I was shopping. The new tundra gains like 2 mpg for the hybrid. I imagine there’s not really a breakeven with that one.

Edit: yep, going off of "starting at" price and advertised mpg, the tundra breaks even at a 1,072,000 miles
 
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stmitch

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Well anything like this is generalizing unless you compare one car to another. But there will be a general range. 100k miles in general could mean 50-150k for all the sensible comparisons (not civic to lightning).
True. My main point was that determining the carbon footprint of an EV has even more variables than an ICE, so blanket statements should be clarified. In most cases, we can safely say that EVs will eventually have a point where the higher initial impact is offset by the lower per mile impact, but determining when that point might be is incredibly specific to individual cases. If anybody wants to estimate their footprint with an EV for their specific location, the links that I shared for the GREET tool and the electricity makeup by state are probably the best tools that we currently have.

Sharing again to highlight so that we can be informed rather than just throwing inaccurate claims around:


 

oldgeek

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Sharing again to highlight so that we can be informed rather than just throwing inaccurate claims around
But where's the fun with that? :D

The point is Marketing. What is trying to be sold here? The general public is being sold on the idea that EV's are carbon free. Many are in the same mentality of "I don't know why these dairy farmers are complaining, I just go to the store to buy milk." With this subject it goes to "All you have to do is plug the thing in." They might acknowledge that it'll raise the electric bill a bit, but beyond that, there's nothing to see here.
 

rusty ol ranger

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But where's the fun with that? :D

The point is Marketing. What is trying to be sold here? The general public is being sold on the idea that EV's are carbon free. Many are in the same mentality of "I don't know why these dairy farmers are complaining, I just go to the store to buy milk." With this subject it goes to "All you have to do is plug the thing in." They might acknowledge that it'll raise the electric bill a bit, but beyond that, there's nothing to see here.
Similar to the people who think hunting is cruel but have no problem buying a big steak at the store.

To be fair though that kind of shit goes on in every industry. I think the fact we are all gearheads we notice it more in vehicle related industries
 

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