Well, here's what I get for not saving every article I read (well, I probably DO actually still have it, but I'm not really wanting to dig through 15 years of back issues of three magazines right now lol, and it's getting late)
I distinctly remember reading about attempts by one of the major magazines to deliberately break various axle shafts (I tried looking on the mag's web pages, but I can't seem to uncover the article). I recalled it stating they broke a 30 spline (D44) shaft at something around 4800ft-lbs. I also recall them attempting to break a Ford 8.8 shaft but their machine maxed out at 6500 ft-lbs and they could not break the shaft.
I looked at the (more recent) Bobby Long results you mentioned, they show a stock 30-spline D44 shaft breaking at 5000ft-lbs. Since that's what I could find for a 30-spline reference, I'll start with that since they don't show a 8.8 shaft.
On
this page about ¾ the way down is a chart comparing strength of different spline configurations referenced to a 30-spline shaft having a 45° pressure angle (a GM 12-bolt).
A 30-spline 30° shaft is 3% weaker, but a 31-spline 45° shaft is 10.7% stronger. So if I'm adding that properly (correct me if I'm not), the 31 spline 45° shaft is 13.7% stronger than the 30-spline 30° shaft. At 5000ft-lbs that's an increase of 685ft-lbs (5685).
But we're not done yet...
Perhaps I should've included in my last post above, Ford 8.8" shafts are made from 1050 steel. According to
this page (and assuming the Dana shafts are the much more common 1040 steel), the 1050 adds yet another 38% strength increase. 5685 + 38% is 7845 ft-lbs.
And yes, any time you're climbing uphill is when you're putting the most strain on your rear axle (this includes climbing up rocks too). Pointing the rig up an obstacle shifts much of your rig's weight from the front toward the rear. With less weight up front, it can't pull as much before losing traction, so the rear is forced to make up for it. Just because this may only be some fraction of your total travels in 4WD doesn't make it any less important (when a rig breaks, it's typically while trying to drive up something, no?).
I guess if your rig is exceptionally nose-heavy, this could make for an exception...